Defaults are ripping through the entire mortgage bond industry at the fastest pace in years.

Investors hold about $6.5 trillion in mortgage bonds, the world’s largest such fixed-income market, says the Securities Industry Financial Markets Association.

Meanwhile, Securities and Exchange Commission chief Chris Cox said the SEC is coming up with new, more flexible accounting rule interpretations that companies and others could use to avoid declaring their mortgage securities in default.

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With the economy increasingly looking like it will slow down materially in the last half of the year, there is a drum beat for the Federal Reserve to cut rates. But how likely is a rate cut this year? We take a very different look at inflation to see if there is any room for the Fed to give a boost to the economy. We look over our shoulder at Japan and the yen carry trade and ask a heretical question: does the Fed cutting rates make any difference?

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It is always risky to call an equity market peak and the beginning of a bear market in equities; so I will not try to do that. But leaving aside equity valuations, it increasingly looks like we are at the peak of a credit/debt cycle, in the US and globally.

Specifically, the crucial macro question that we should ask ourselves today is whether we are at the peak of a Minsky Credit Cycle. Or as the UBS economist George Magnus – an expert of financial instability - put it: “Have we reached a Minsky moment?”

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Private companies that lend their own money are generally very careful with their loan underwriting, and they know how to collect the money they lend. Most reputable finance companies use simple accounting procedures and have adequate loan reserves, and conservative financial leverage. These firms generally understand derivatives and don’t rely on them to manufacture profits. They’re not sharks.

This article is not about the private companies that use sound lending practices. It’s about the many big financial players, the giant hedge funds, major money center banks, and Watt Street Investment banks. These are the "Big Boy Sharks" who created $2 trillion in subprime mortgages, using hubris and Gordon Gekko-style greed, and have recklessly used leverage and risk with other peoples’ money to book corporate profits. A typical example of this is the over-levered Bear Stearns hedge funds investing in crappy mortgage securities that have now left many investors scratching their heads while they search for answers as to why their equity vanished overnight.

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