SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Securitization, hailed as the greatest financial innovation of the 20th century, isn’t getting such rave reviews anymore after this summer’s subprime mortgage crisis exposed some weaknesses. With global credit markets still in crisis, experts have already begun debating the benefits and the drawbacks of the process.

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There are only two economic reports worth watching this week that are likely to affect mortgage rates. Both of them are scheduled for release the same day, meaning we may see a relatively calm week for mortgage rates. The financial markets are closed tomorrow in observance of the President’s Day Holiday and will reopen Tuesday morning. You may find some lenders to be open for business tomorrow, but I would not expect to see new rates issued until Tuesday.

Wednesday morning brings us all of this week’s relevant news and data. The Labor Department will release January’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 8:30 AM ET, which measures inflationary pressures at the very important consumer level of the economy. With exception to maybe the Employment report, the CPI is the most important report that we see each month. Its results can have a huge impact on the financial markets, especially long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds. It is expected to show a 0.1% increase in the overall index and a 0.2% rise in the more important core data. If we see weaker than expected readings, bond prices should rise and mortgage rates would likely fall.

The second and final relevant economic data of the week is the Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for January. This Conference Board report attempts to predict economic activity over th e next three to six months. It is expected to show a 0.2% rise, meaning that economic activity may rise in the near future. A smaller than expected increase would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

Also, Wednesday afternoon brings us the release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. Traders will be looking for any indication of the Fed’s next move regarding monetary policy. They will be released at 2:00 PM ET, therefore, any reaction will come during afternoon trading.

Overall, the most important day of the week is obviously Wednesday with the release of all of the week’s relevant news. The rest of the week will likely be fairly quiet, keeping mortgage near Wednesday’s afternoon levels. The recent bond rally has me concerned that traders may sell some holdings to capture the profits from the run in prices. We may see some selling ahead of Wednesday’s data while some traders may wait until after Wednesday’s news. I believe that favora ble news is already built into current bond prices. Accordingly, I have shifted to a lock recommendation for immediate and short-term periods.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

a la mode

Posted by TheLoanProfessor

Section 6050H of the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 (relating to mortgage interest) is amended by adding at the end the following new subsection:

In general.–Premiums paid or accrued for qualified mortgage insurance by a taxpayer during the taxable year in connection with acquisition indebtedness with respect to a qualified residence of the taxpayer shall be treated for purposes of this section as interest which is qualified residence interest.

The Act defines qualified mortgage insurance as that provided by the VA, the FHA, or the Rural Housing Administration or by private carriers and specifies that it be treated as interest on a qualified residence. This, however, is modified by the following "that premiums paid or accrued for qualified mortgage insurance by a taxpayer during the taxable year in connection with acquisition indebtedness." This is interpreted by BNA as meaning that the deduction is only available to homeowners who assume PMI payments during 2007. In other words, you may not qualify for the deduction if you bought a house subject to PMI in 2006 or earlier even though you are currently paying premiums.

Deductions seem to be further limited to 2007 by the following: no benefit will currently accrue to taxpayers for any amount paid or accrued beyond December 31 of this year "or properly allocable to any period after that date." We are not lawyers or tax authorities and we advise you, strongly, to consult your own tax professional, but it appears that this deduction is only available to taxpayers during the current calendar year and that paying premiums ahead as taxpayers are often advised to do with mortgage interest or property taxes at year end when deductions are needed will not work in this situation.

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This week brings us the release of only three monthly economic reports for the bond market to digest. The first report of the week comes late tomorrow morning when the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will post their manufacturing index for September. This index gives us an indication of manufacturer sentiment. Analysts are expecting a decline from the 54. 5 reading last month to 53.5 this month. The 50.0 benchmark is extremely important because below that level means more surveyed executives felt business worsened than those who said it had improved. This data is important not only because it measures manufacturer sentiment, but it is very recent data. Some economic releases track data that are 30-60 days old, but the ISM index is only a few weeks old. If we get a smaller than expected reading, I expect to see the bond market rally and mortgage rates fall further tomorrow morning.

The next release is Wednesday when the Commerce Department will post August’s Factory Orders data. This manufacturing sector report is similar to last week’s Durable Goods Orders release, but includes orders for non-durable goods. It can usually impact the financial markets enough to change mortgage rates if it varies from forecasts by a wide margin. Current forecasts are calling for a decline in new orders of approximately 0.2%. An unexpecte d rise could drive mortgage rates higher, while a weaker than expected reading should push them lower Wednesday.

The Labor Department will post September’s Employment report early Friday morning. This report will reveal the U.S. unemployment rate, number of new payrolls added and average hourly earnings. These are considered to be very important readings of the employment sector and can have a huge impact on the financial markets. The ideal scenario for the bond market is rising unemployment, falling payrolls and a drop in earnings.

Weaker than expected readings should help boost bond prices and lower mortgage rates Friday. However, stronger then forecasted readings could be disastrous for mortgage pricing. Analysts are expecting to see no change in the unemployment rate of 4.7%, an increase in new payrolls of approximately 120,000 and a 0.3% increase in earnings.

Overall, look for Friday to be the big day of the week, but tomorrow may also bring chang es to mortgage rates. The bond market will close early Friday ahead of the Columbus Day holiday and will reopen Tuesday morning. This may create additional volatility in the markets as investors move to protect themselves over the long weekend.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.