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It is always risky to call an equity market peak and the beginning of a bear market in equities; so I will not try to do that. But leaving aside equity valuations, it increasingly looks like we are at the peak of a credit/debt cycle, in the US and globally.

Specifically, the crucial macro question that we should ask ourselves today is whether we are at the peak of a Minsky Credit Cycle. Or as the UBS economist George Magnus – an expert of financial instability - put it: “Have we reached a Minsky moment?”

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"Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years." ~ Warren Buffett

As we all know (or at least should know), the United States economy became imbalanced in the late-1990s as too much speculative capital surged into the Internet and Telecom sectors of the economy. As this speculative boom expanded, rising asset prices allowed the boom to move into the broader economy. Throughout the late-’90s, speculative funds and increased leverage played a primary role in the expansion of credit throughout the economy. If someone wanted cash and had a semi-viable story as to how he would pay it back, he could procure a loan or venture funds quite easily. This process played out throughout the economy, as consumers, businesses and every level of government piled into debt in order to finance projects for current consumption, with little or no concern given to having to pay it off. Our fiat monetary system, with limitless fractional reserve banking made possible by low reserve requirements and a general lack of prudence by our questionable Federal Reserve establishment, played a significant role in creating the initial imbalance.

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The shortcomings of Fannie Mae have been overlooked on the basis that Fannie plays a critical role in driving the housing sector, and thus the American economy. As Fannie goes, so goes the nation. Fannie means housing, and accordingly, Fannie is the conduit that takes one from "inequitable ownership" to the American Dream. In a nation where equality is everything, and where advantage need not be earned, but only redistributed, how can anything be more virtuous?
 
Fannie Mae (FNMA or Federal National Mortgage Association), a government-sponsored enterprise (GSE), finances one of every five home loans in the United States. In 1938 this GSE was founded by the federal government with a mission to increase home ownership across the United States. It is subject to congressional oversight via the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO). Fannie Mae stock (FNM) is actively traded on the New York Stock Exchange and is part of the Standard & Poor’s 500 Composite Stock Price Index.

Fannie Mae may be one of the most ill-fated welfare creations, ever, on the part of the United States government. In the beginning, Fannie Mae’s impact was negligible, however, from the outset there were plans to swell Fannie’s waistline by expanding her purchasing authority. At about the time the American soldiers were coming home from WWII, Fannie was enabled to purchase loans guaranteed by the Veterans Administration, in addition to the Federal Housing Administration-insured mortgages it was already purchasing. This creation and expansion of a secondary market for mortgages was a vital boost to the supply of lendable money in the United States.

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