A score of 100 means the area has a 10% chance its home prices will decline over the next two years. Higher scores mean a greater risk of home-price declines in the future. The New Orleans area was left out of the quarter’s results due to the impact of Hurricane Katrina.


Below are the risk scores for the top 50 metropolitan areas, minus New Orleans:

San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, Calif., 599
Nassau-Suffolk, N.Y., 589
Boston-Quincy, Mass., 588
Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, Calif., 588
Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, Calif., 585
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif., 583
Oakland-Fremont-Hayward, Calif., 582
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, Calif., 575
Providence-New Bedford-Fall River, RI-Mass., 568
San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City, Calif., 560
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif., 559
Cambridge-Newton-Framingham, Mass., 537
Edison, N.J., 536
New York-White Plains-Wayne, N.Y.-N.J., 498
Las Vegas-Paradise, Nev., 481
Newark-Union, N.J.-Penn., 459
Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach, Fla., 441
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, D.C.-Va.-Md.-W.Va., 431
Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, Fla., 359
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, Minn.-Wis., 355
Detroit-Livonia-Dearborn, Mich., 337
Baltimore-Towson, Md., 307
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Fla., 294
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, Va.-N.C., 278
Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills, Mich., 184
Orlando-Kissimmee, Fla., 179
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Ariz., 175
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, Ga., 165
Denver-Aurora, Colo., 149
Philadelphia, 130
Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, Ill., 127
St. Louis, Mo.-Ill., 112
Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, Wash., 109
Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, Ore.-Wash., 108
Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, Wis., 108
Kansas City, Mo.-Kan., 101
Austin-Round Rock, Texas, 93
Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, N.C.-S.C., 87
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, Texas, 83
Dallas-Plano-Irving, Texas, 80
Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro, Tenn., 71
Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas, 69
Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, Ohio, 68
Columbus, Ohio, 65
San Antonio, 65
Cincinnati-Middletown, Ohio-Ky.-Ind., 64
Memphis, Tenn.-Miss.-Ark., 61
Indianapolis-Carmel, Ind., 58
Pittsburgh, 57

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