June 22, 2006

Thursday’s bond market

 

Thursday’s bond market has opened in negative territory despite weaker than expected economic news. The stock markets are showing losses with the Dow down 21 points and the Nasdaq down 12 points. The bond market is currently down 10/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point.

The Lab or Department posted last week’s initial unemployment claims, saying 308,000 new claims were filed. This was close to the 305,000 that was expected and has filed to influence bond trading or mortgage rates this morning.

The Conference Board released its Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for May late this morning. The New York-based business research group said that the indicators fell 0.6%, indicating that economic activity may slow over the next three to six months. This was a little weaker than the 0.5% drop that was expected, but wasn’t enough of a difference to lead to a bond rally or mortgage rates improvements.

The Commerce Department will announce May’s Durable Goods Orders early tomorrow morning. This data gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength. It is known to be quite volatile from month to month and is expected to show an increase of 0.4% in May’s new orders after April’s 4.4% drop. A larger than expected increase would likely pu sh stock prices higher and mortgage rates lower. A smaller than expected increase would be an ideal scenario for the bond market and could lead to an improvement in mortgage pricing tomorrow.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

a la mode



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