Tuesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory despite large stock market losses. The Dow is currently down 112 points while the Nasdaq has lost 29 points. The bond market is currently down 2/32, which will likely keep this morning’s mortgage rates at Friday’s levels.

The Conference Board kicked off this week’s data with the release of their Con sumer Confidence Index (CCI) for May. It showed a sizable decline in confidence from April’s reading, but was still higher than forecasts had called for. The release showed a 103.2 reading, down from the previous month’s 109.8. However, analysts were expecting to see a 100.9 reading. This means that consumers were more confident about their own financial situations than thought. That is bad news for the bond market, but with the early stock losses, mortgage rates have not bee affected by the news.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release tomorrow, but we will get to see the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. Market participants will be looking for how Fed members voted for the last rate hike. A unanimous vote could mean that all voting members are still concerned about inflation, meaning that more rate hikes may be coming. However, a divided vote will likely be construed as an indication that the rate hikes may stop in the near future. The min utes will be released at 2:00 PM ET, so if there is a market reaction to them it will be evident during afternoon trading.

The revised 1st Quarter Productivity and Costs report will be released Thursday morning. This data measures employee output and employer costs for wages and benefits. It is considered to be a measurement of wage inflation and is thought to allow low inflationary economic growth when productivity is high. Last month’s preliminary reading revealed a 3.2% rate, but I don’t think this piece of data will have much of an impact on the bond market or mortgage pricing. Current forecasts are showing an upward revision to 4.2%.

Overall, I think we have a busy week ahead of us. The big report of the week is Friday’s Employment data, but the most volatility in rates will likely come Thursday or Friday. With several important reports still due to be posted this week, please maintain contact with your mortgage professional if you have not locked an int erest rate yet.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

a la mode

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